Applying causal inference methods to linked data to understand transitions to aged care

The project will contribute to work being undertaken as part of a recently funded NHMRC grant within the National Centre for Healthy Ageing. Recent advances in data linkage, causal inference methods such as target trial emulation, and the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to electronic health records have the potential to provide new and more robust approaches to the evaluation of government funded policies captured in administrative dataset. This project will combine and extend, these cutting-edge approaches to answer policy relevant questions of national significance within the field of ageing. We will achieve this by developing a new framework for target trial emulation of complex interventions and apply this to a linked population dataset of older people. AI enhanced variables extracted from hospital electronic health record (EHR) data linked with state and commonwealth administrative datasets will improve the accuracy of our target trial emulation beyond what is currently available. A major outcome of this project will be the creation of a new comprehensive framework for target trial emulation of complex interventions and a data asset for ongoing evaluation and simulation of future government policies relevant to supporting older people to remain living well in the community.